29 June, 2010

R2000 Polling Data

Daily Kos has admitted that the polling for many of the most prominent polls they've conducted with R2000 are likely to have been complete and utter bunk. Not only are the gathering methods (and therefore, the data itself) probably faulty, but there is also evidence that much of it was completely fabricated.

I think it is safe to say that I disagree with Daily Kos about 99.99% of the time. But I do have to give them kudos for choosing to air this sort of dirty laundry in public, and in particular for taking it upon themselves to do the honorable thing:

While the investigation didn't look at all of Research 2000 polling conducted for us, fact is I no longer have any confidence in any of it, and neither should anyone else. I ask that all poll tracking sites remove any Research 2000 polls commissioned by us from their databases. I hereby renounce any post we've written based exclusively on Research 2000 polling.

I note that Real Clear Politics hasn't removed the R2000/Daily Kos data yet from the Illinois US Senate and Illinois Governor races. Perhaps they're reluctant to, because it would probably skew those races even further towards the Republicans than they already are. My guess is RCP will keep those polls posted, but it may be a few more months before we see another poll on either race that isn't Rasmussen or PPP. The Gianoullias campaign has got to be disappointed, because I suspect they were counting on R2000/Daily Kos to manufacture a poll sometime this summer that showed them ahead of Mark Kirk.

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