21 June, 2010

Illinois Governor's Poll Watch

Two polls in recent weeks point to big problems for Governor Quinn's re-election campaign: Public Policy Polling has Republican challenger Bill Brady up by 4 points, while Rassmussen has Brady up by a whopping 11 points.

As always, I'm rather skeptical about Rasmussen's numbers, since they lean Republican and this is essentially a Democratic state. Also, as I've mentioned previously concerning Mark Kirk's poll numbers, polls conducted five months away from an election and at the start of vacation-and-fun-in-the-sun season are not always the best indicators of actual strength. But PPP's polling data should give Gov. Quinn's supporters cause for concern; PPP is in general a Democratic-leaning polling organization with a Democratic-leaning polling bias, and if even then they are finding the sentiment leaning against a Democrat incumbent, then Governor Quinn is clearly in trouble. Still, I have to caution that its only June, and most voters don't start waking up to oncoming elections until they're about two months away. If these numbers are the same or worse in September, Quinn will officially be in Real Trouble.

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