McDonnell, Hoffman Up, Christie Flatline

New York 23rd District: Another poll has come out putting Doug Hoffman in the lead, and showing Scozzafava fading fast. But like the Club for Growth poll yesterday, this one was also a partisan poll, commissioned as it was by a group which has also endorsed Hoffman. However, it did have a slightly larger sampling than the Club for Growth poll. I'm still a little suspicious, and won't really believe Hoffman has a chance unless a poll comes out from a less partisan source showing he has at least similar strength. But it could very well be that Hoffman is starting to peak at exactly the right moment. Oh, and RCP has finally started tracking the polling for this race. Thank you, RCP.

New Jersey Governor: Rasmussen has Christie up by 3 percentage points, but since Rasmussen always leans Republican I tend to lop off two percentage points on any Republican result they publish. RCP still gives the average to Corzine, but its very, very tight -- only a 0.2% advantage. I still think Christie will pull it out in the end, but it will be very, very tight regardless.

Virginia Governor: Its going to be a McDonnell blow-out. Even the Washington Post poll -- which ALWAYS leans Democrat -- shows Republican McDonnell up by 11 percentage points. And Survey USA has him up by 17 percentage points. And with Democrat Deeds going down in flames, there is the possibility that it will also tip the balance in a number of local legislative districts, as the Virginia Democratic party is already feeling thoroughly demoralized before the polls have even opened, and may not turn out to support Democratic candidates in some of the closer legislative elections.