Christie, McDonnell Up, Hoffman ?

New Jersey: Corzine seemed to have garnered a brief surge in the polls a few days ago, but now appears to have stalled. As I thought would happen, supporters of independent candidate Daggett are giving their candidate a second look, and realizing that he almost certainly cannot beat Corzine, are now throwing their support behind Christie as the candidate who has the better shot of actually winning. Rassmussen has Christie up by three points; perhaps more significantly, Daily Kos (which leans Democrat about as much as Rasmussen leans Republican) also has Christie up, but only by One percentage point. Survey USA has them tied. Taken all together, I'd say the actual is somewhere around Christie +2, but considering the closeness of the race that's basically means its a toss up. The Daily Kos one is perhaps the most telling of what is happening; even leaning Democrat, Kos has Christie leading by a slim margin. Whoever manages to bring their base out the most will win that election.

Virginia: Rasmussen has McDonnell up by 13 percentage points, Daily Kos has him up by 10 points. Either way you look at it, Creigh Deeds days appear to be numbered.

New York 23rd District: By far the most interesting race in the country. Daily Kos puts Democrat Owens up by One percentage point, with Conservative candidate Hoffman just behind. Scozzafava, the Republican, is fading fast -- faded so much, in fact, that the race has basically become Owens vs. Hoffman, with Scozzafava playing the role of also-ran. And Hoffman appears to be gaining strength, while Owens support has mostly been a steady percentage. Earlier this week I predicted that the Democrat would win because Hoffman's presence would mean the conservative voters would probably split; instead, what appears to be happening is that the conservative voters are realizing that supporting a third party candidate in this case might not actually amount to throwing their vote away. Hoffman now has a real shot at winning. This race will be incredibly interesting to watch.