03 November, 2009

Election Day 2009 - First Reports

First reports indicate light turnout in Democratic districts in New Jersey and Virginia. Virginia is not surprising, since the supports of Creigh Deeds have been demoralized for weeks now by the defeat even they know is coming. But the reports of light turn-out in New Jersey are surprising, considering how tight and high-profile the Governor race is. However, NJ is still much more of a working-class state than Virginia is; there's still the early evening to consider. However, if reports of light turnout persist up until the polls close at 7:00pm EST, then that will be very bad news for incumbent Corzine.

No word on New York 23rd District, but since it is a much smaller race, that should come as no surprise. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that Hoffman's supporters are a million times fired up than anyone else in that district.

Incidentally, I understand there is a second House race going on as well, in California. The California 10th Congressional District (just outside of San Francisco) is apparently also holding an election to find a replacement for their old representative (don't know what happened to them). No one expects the Democrat to lose in that district, not even the Republican challenger. However... if the Republican manages to get close, that could be a sign that the seat may be up for grabs in the 2010 election.

Exit polling on Virginia is suggesting that its going to be a rout for the Republicans (McDonnell 54.5%, Deeds 45%). Not only will McDonnell win, but they are also going to be making significant gains in the state legislature as well.

New Jersey exit polls have it tied -- Christie 47%, Corzine 47%, Daggett "barely registering". We might not find out who the winner is tonight.

New York exit polls have Hoffman up by 5 points.

Polls in Virginia close at 7:00pm EST (only 49 minutes from now); New Jersey polls close at 8:00pm EST, New York polls at 9:00pm EST. Subtract one hour to get Central time.

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