01 November, 2009

Election 2009 Roundup

New York 23rd District: Oi. Talk about volatile. On Saturday, Dede Scozzafava suspended her campaign, because polls were showing that she was so far behind New York Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman and Democrat Bill Owens that she had no hope of capturing the seat. At the time she pointedly did not make an endorsement. However, late tonight she did... for the Democratic nominee. Frankly, I kind of feel bad for her -- she clearly got the short end of the stick in this election, and it wasn't entirely her fault. Yet, its got to be said: politics is a full contact sport, and anyone who runs for office has to be prepared for the inevitable curveballs that come from the least expected directions. Something which Scozzafava clearly did not plan for. What this means for the election is clearly unknown; some Scozzafava voters will undoubtedly follow her recommendation, but the idea that she has turned around and endorsed the Democrat has clearly rankled many in her district. So the question on Tuesday will become, which side will the Scozzafava voters go? A week ago I predicted that Bill Owens would win, because the Republican/Conservative vote would be split by Hoffman and Scozzafava. But right now, I've got the gut feeling that Hoffman has the momentum and will carry the election.

New Jersey Governor: This race is probably a toss up, but appears to be leaning Christie's way. Rasmussen has Christie up by 3 points, Monmouth/Gannett has him up by 1 point. But in an election like this, any advantage less than 4 points is suspect. Added to this is the fact that New Jersey, like Illinois, is run by a corrupt Democratic machine so entrenched a full scale nuclear bombing campaign could not dislodge it, as even the cockroaches are registered to vote. With that in mind, many have suggested that Christie needs to be going into Tuesday with at least a 5 point lead, or the prevailing voter fraud will tip the election to Corzine's favor. Unlike New York's 23rd District, the conservative Independent candidate -- Chris Daggett -- appears to be fading, with most of his support going to Christie as those voters realize Daggett has no chance. I still think Christie will pull this one out, but it will be close.

Virgina Governor: The only suspense left in this race is whether or not Bob McDonnell will win with a single or double digit majority. Honestly, if Creigh Deeds wins this election, it will only be because of massive, massive voter fraud.

Released this evening, Public Policy Polling (PPP) has Doug Hoffman up in the New York 23rd District by a whopping 15 points. And PPP is a Democratic/Liberal pollster, which means the margin could even be larger. If they're finding that big of a lead, then Owens definitely has cause to worry.

No comments: