18 March, 2020

Imperial College London: Expect 18 Months of Coronavirus Emergency

Some truly frightening predictions have been made in a study by the Imperial College in London, concerning the Coronavirus Pandemic:

"We use the latest estimates of severity to show that policy strategies which aim to mitigate the epidemic might halve deaths and reduce peak healthcare demand by two-thirds, but that this will not be enough to prevent health systems being overwhelmed. More intensive, and socially disruptive interventions will therefore be required to suppress transmission to low levels. It is likely such measures – most notably, large scale social distancing – will need to be in place for many months, perhaps until a vaccine becomes available."

-- Professor Neil Ferguson

COVID-19: Imperial Researchers Model Likely Impact of Public Health Measures

Bottom line, we may be dealing with this not just for a few months, but potentially for a year or more. At least until a vaccine of some kind is developed.

Frankly, I don't know if society can hold out for more than a few weeks in its current "social distancing" mode.  The economy is almost certainly going to collapse, and food distribution could very well become a serious problem.  Never thought I'd see this in my lifetime, but... this is the sort of thing that has the potential to go really bad really fast.

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