08 May, 2010

Mark Kirk Up by 3 Points (R2000/Daily Kos)

Another week, another poll showing Mark Kirk ahead in Illinois. This time its R2000/Daily Kos, which as you can imagine is a very Democratic-leaning pollster. They have Kirk ahead by three points, 41% - 38%. Note that both this poll and the most recent Rasmussen poll peg Giannoulias support as being at 38%, while each poll differs on the level of Kirk's support. Since Rasmussen leans Republican and Daily Kos leans Democrat, I'm guessing that Kirk's true support is actually somewhere between the two, say around 44%. Real Clear Politics still has this race listed as a "Toss Up", but if any more polls come out showing a Kirk with a substantial lead I think its likely RCP and others will start moving this race into the "Leans Republican" column. So the question is becoming, will Giannoulias actually stay in race?

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