05 July, 2010

Poll Predictions

Its the start of the first full week of a new month, which means several polls for various races in Illinois are likely to be coming out over the next few days.

The one I am most closely watching is, of course, the Illinois Senate race. Rasmussen should have their snapshot out about the middle of the week, and my bet is that it will still show Mark Kirk ahead, albeit with a small lead (probably in the neighborhood of 2-3%). PPP hasn't had a poll in this race out in a few months, so there's a good chance they'll weigh in; if so, I readily expect them to show Gianoulias either tied or with a sliver of a lead. Of course, as I've stated numerous times on this blog, I think polling at this time is close to meaningless, but its at least interesting to watch the various races make hash out of them.

The other big Illinois race I'm expecting to see polling on is the Governor race. My gut feeling based on personal observation is that Governor Quinn is in big, big trouble. I expect Rassmussen to show challenger Brady with another double-digit lead, while if PPP weighs in they'll probably show Brady in the mid-to-upper single digits. Honestly, the few Quinn supporters I've found are lackluster in their support at best, while the Brady supporters are getting fired up; this race may not even be close come November. But again, I've got to issue the same caveat as above in the US Senate race: summer polling, blah-blah-blah, wait until the September polls start coming out for the real snapshot of what's going on in this state.

BTW, I was expecting a Daily Kos/R2000 poll out by now for both races, but that ain't gonna happen in view of recent events. I expect now for Daily Kos to sit the summer out while they lick their wounds and find another (hopefully, more ethical) company to do their bidding polling for them. I wouldn't expect to see another poll from them until September or even October... much to many Democrat candidates disappointment, I'm sure.

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