08 April, 2010

Kirk Leads Giannoulias by 4 Points

According to Public Policy Polling, which is generally a Democratic polling organization, Mark Kirk has opened a four-point lead over Alexi Giannoulias in the race for the Illinois US Senate seat currently occupied by Roland Burris. This is the first major poll in a couple of months to show Kirk ahead, although several polls more biased towards Republican candidates have already been showing Kirk with a small to medium lead.

But its still very early. With the election still seven months away, there's no telling how the landscape might change. Frankly, I expect the polls to seesaw between the two until well into the summer. Most likely, we won't be getting a clear idea as to who is really ahead until late August or early September. But with more problems with his family's bank on the horizon, to say nothing of the upcoming trial of former Gov. Rod Blagojevich (which has many Democrats privately worried), there's a good chance that Giannoulias might even start tanking in the polls. If that happens, look perhaps for some back-door maneuvering begin to have him step down as the candidate and be replaced with someone presumably less politically tainted. At the moment I think its unlikely, but the possibility is there. The Democrats do not want to lose President Barrack Obama's former Senate seat to a Republican.

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