31 August, 2010

Gallup Gives the Democrats More Bad News

According to a poll released by Gallup on Monday, Republicans in 2010 lead Democrats by 10 percentage points among Registered Voters, as to who they would prefer to vote for in the upcoming election. That's the largest disparity between the parties ever. Even more worrisome for Democrats, Republican voters have a 25 point lead on "enthusiasm", which means that they are much more likely (twice as likely, according to Gallup's figures) than Democrats to be "very enthusiastic" about their candidates, and hence much more likely to come out and vote. I've commented elsewhere about the enthusiasm gap (particularly in the Kirk vs. Gianoulias race) among the voters I've been encountering, and this poll seems to bear that out.

Again, we're still two months away, and there's no telling what will happen between now and November 2. But going into Labor Day with these numbers, Democrats and their supporters across the country have to be very, very nervous.

On the other hand, Newsweek has handed the Democrats a poll that says the race is dead even and that they are in much better shape than (just about all the other) polls are claiming. In commentator Andrew Malcolm's words,

"So it all comes down to which poll do you believe: the one by the troubled weekly magazine that was just sold for $1 to a 92-year-old businessman who’s married to a Democratic congresswoman? Or the one by the 75-year-old, highly-respected professional polling organization?"

Hat Tip:
Newsweek Polls, the Gas-Station Sushi of American Psephology -- Jonah Goldberg, NRO The Corner

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