25 August, 2010

Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg (CNBC)

According to Jeff Cox, economist David Rosenberg thinks we're in a Depression and not a Recession.

"The 1929-33 recession saw six quarterly bounces in GDP with an average gain of 8 percent, sending the stock market to a 50 percent rally in early 1930 as investors thought the worst had passed.

"False premise," Rosenberg said. "And guess what? We may well be reliving history here. If you're keeping score, we have recorded four quarterly advances in real GDP, and the average is only 3%.""

Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg, by Jeff Cox (CNBC)


More and more, I'm seeing people entertaining the notion that we have entered a Depresson -- and with each bad unemployment report, each bad sales report, each dip in the GDP report, the feeling is getting hard to shake that we're still not even close to finding a way out of this.

Official unemployment figures are likely to top 10% before the year is out (and if you count "underemployed" and those people who are out-of-work and who have stopped looking, the figure is actually probably around 18-20%). When that happens... things are gonna get ugly.

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